What if untreatable drug-resistant gonorrhoea spreads across US cities?
The honest read: pan-resistant gonorrhea is a serious public-health story but a weak market catalyst — it bids AMR-focused antibiotic developers and modestly supports gold/defensives, with little real mobility or oil impact. There is no clean historical analogue of an STI driving markets; the COVID-circuit-breaker analogues are mis-fit. The pandemic-style crude/jet-fuel cascade is overstated — this barely moves macro; trade it as a niche long in antibiotic-pipeline names only.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Untreatable pan-resistant gonorrhea strain spreads across US cities, exhausting all antibiotic options and igniting public-health alarm. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -11.34–+1.51% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.33–+0.44% · other way +24.57% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.36–+0.04% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade short: MSTR's +14.8% is pure BTC-bull regime contamination (ASML +69%, tariff +65%, Iran +51%) — a gonorrhea-resistance public-health scare has no link to Bitcoin beta.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.2% · 5d -7.6% | 75% | 40 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.9% | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -3.4% | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -3.2% | 55% | 40 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.07 | · |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.1% | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +2bp · 5d +1bp | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | · |
Why this probability
Pan-resistant gonorrhea spreading US-wide emerging risk, but treatment options not yet exhausted. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.