What if Parallel-market premium blowout pre-announces an EM devaluation?
A ballooning gap between official and black-market FX rates signals an unsustainable peg, prompting hoarding and a self-fulfilling rush that forces the adjustment.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A ballooning gap between official and black-market FX rates signals an unsustainable peg, prompting hoarding and a self-fulfilling rush that forces the adjustment. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -6.82–+0.57% · other way +31.87% (n=12) |
| 2 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -3.93–+1.45% · other way +7.7% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -8.28–+5.2% · other way -2.3% (n=11) |
| 4 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.15–-0.23% · other way +1.11% (n=12) |
| 5 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.78–+0.11% · other way -0.73% (n=12) |
| 6 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.11–-0.09% · other way -0.66% (n=12) |
| 7 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -3.81–+3.21% · other way +24.19% (n=11) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -3.37–+1.86% · other way +4.16% (n=11) |
| 10 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.02–+0.97% · other way +1.04% (n=12) |
| 11 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.83–+0.02% · other way -0.57% (n=12) |
| 12 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.56–+0.29% · other way -1.36% (n=12) |
| 13 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.52–+3.58% · other way -7.61% (n=12) |
| 14 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.65–+0.01% · other way -0.23% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 35 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 70% | 23 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -3.2% | 71% | 24 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +4.2% · 5d +7.2% | 67% | 6 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.7% · 5d -9.8% | 67% | 6 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 64% | 22 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 23 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.6% | 62% | 29 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -3.4% | 62% | 8 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 61% | 23 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.3% | 57% | 23 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d -3bp | 55% | 33 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d -4bp | 55% | 35 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -2.4% | 57% | 7 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.3% | 54% | 24 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |