What if Chinese factory-gate prices stay negative for a third consecutive year?
Factory-gate prices (PPI) stay negative for a third consecutive year amid industrial overcapacity and weak demand, crushing manufacturer margins and exporting goods deflation to trading partners.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Factory-gate prices (PPI) stay negative for a third consecutive year amid industrial overcapacity and weak demand, crushing manufacturer margins and exporting goods deflation to trading partners. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Inflation surprise ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -6.15–+1.52% · other way +6.45% (n=10) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.23–+0.4% · other way -0.11% (n=10) |
| 3 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.23–+0.55% · other way -5.21% (n=5) |
| 4 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.5–+0.37% · other way -2.27% (n=5) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -6.98–+3.22% · other way -8.1% (n=5) |
| 6 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.82–+0.17% · other way -0.65% (n=9) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Platinum XPTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.47–+0.05% · other way -1.23% (n=10) |
| 9 | Palladium XPDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.07–+0.64% · other way +0.66% (n=10) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -8.78–+2.85% · other way +0.68% (n=5) |
| 11 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -10.02–+2.38% · other way +20.5% (n=11) |
| 12 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.28–+3.39% · other way +8.84% (n=10) |
| 13 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -9.33–+2.52% · other way +18.8% (n=12) |
| 14 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.35–+1.31% · other way -1.22% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +1.0% ↺ fades | 67% | 30 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -8.0% · 5d -8.1% | 67% | 18 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.2% | 63% | 30 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -5.2% · 5d -2.3% | 62% | 32 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.2% | 62% | 26 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.7% · 5d -16.2% | 62% | 16 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -8bp · 5d -4bp | 59% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -3.0% | 60% | 25 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.2% | 60% | 30 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.4% | 60% | 30 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.6% | 60% | 30 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.2% · 5d -5.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 30 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -3.8% | 60% | 25 | 0.16 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.0% | 60% | 30 | 0.16 | · |