What if blockades shut Peru's biggest copper mines?
Community blockades shutting Las Bambas and Antamina slash Peru's fiscal revenue and pressure the sol and PERU bonds; the supply hit tightens copper modestly while Freeport proxies the miner. Rhymes with the recurring 2022-23 Las Bambas blockades that repeatedly halted shipments. China owns/buys the bulk of Peruvian copper (MMG/Chinalco), so the transmission runs straight to Chinese smelters; the novel angle is social-license risk as a persistent supply tax rather than a one-off outage.
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The butterfly cascade
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Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Community blockades shut Las Bambas and Antamina, slashing Peru's fiscal revenue and pressuring the sol and PERU bonds. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.