What if a fifth presidential ouster sinks Peru's sol?
A fifth presidential ouster in five years stokes dollarization fears and weakens the sol despite ample reserves — a confidence shock, not a global credit event. Rhymes with Peru's 2020-22 political churn that pressured PEN even as the BCRP held large buffers. Copper exports to China anchor the external account; the forward angle is that Peru's famously strong reserves and credible central bank cap the downside, so the trade is fading the panic rather than chasing it.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A fifth presidential ouster in five years drives dollarization fears, weakening the sol despite high reserves. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.91–+0.01% · other way -0.16% (n=12) |
| 2 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.12–+0.16% · other way -0.09% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -5.14–+1.34% · other way +26.61% (n=12) |
| 4 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.72–+3.91% · other way -3.49% (n=12) |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -6.22–+5.12% · other way +6.05% (n=11) |
| 6 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.61–+0.03% · other way +1.78% (n=12) |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.97–+0.3% · other way -0.44% (n=12) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.44–+0.03% · other way +0.35% (n=12) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -18.05–+9.15% · other way -1.04% (n=11) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -6.42–+5.51% · other way +4.87% (n=11) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.32–+2.93% · other way +21.75% (n=11) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.36–+0.6% · other way +0.36% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade short; MSTR/NDX/XLK's positive realized is BTC-bull plus 2023-rebound contamination, not a Peruvian political-vacuum sol slide reaching US megacap tech.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 26 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -17.7% · 5d -13.9% | 100% | 3 | 0.59 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 68% | 19 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.9% | 68% | 25 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -3.6% | 64% | 22 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.7% · 5d -1.9% | 67% | 3 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.5% | 59% | 22 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -6.4% · 5d -1.7% | 60% | 5 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -15bp · 5d -7bp | 58% | 26 | 0.14 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 55% | 22 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.2% | 54% | 26 | 0.06 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.6% · 5d +1.4% | 48% | 23 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.0% | 46% | 26 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.8% | 42% | 24 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d +10.6% ↺ fades | 33% | 3 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Peru presidential churn chronic, but high reserves cap sol moves; a fresh ouster within 6mo uncertain. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.