What if a fifth presidential ouster sinks Peru's sol?
A fifth presidential ouster in five years stokes dollarization fears and weakens the sol despite ample reserves — a confidence shock, not a global credit event. Rhymes with Peru's 2020-22 political churn that pressured PEN even as the BCRP held large buffers. Copper exports to China anchor the external account; the forward angle is that Peru's famously strong reserves and credible central bank cap the downside, so the trade is fading the panic rather than chasing it.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A fifth presidential ouster in five years drives dollarization fears, weakening the sol despite high reserves. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.