What if Petro-dollar recycling resumes, dollar firms?
A calmer Gulf and steady oil revenues restore reliable petro-dollar recycling into Treasuries, modestly firming the dollar and easing global funding conditions.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A calmer Gulf and steady oil revenues restore reliable petro-dollar recycling into Treasuries, modestly firming the dollar and easing global funding conditions. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Financial conditions ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -6.32–+10.37% · other way +10.58% (n=10) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.2–-0.15% · other way +0.94% (n=10) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.94–+6.21% · other way +0.27% (n=9) |
| 4 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.21–+0.41% · other way +0.29% (n=12) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -4.91–+8.89% · other way +12.95% (n=8) |
| 6 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.33–+0.07% · other way -0.4% (n=10) |
| 7 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -4bp hist -3.69–+3.71% · other way +2.1% (n=12) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.0–+0.48% · other way +0.66% (n=11) |
| 9 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.35–-0.09% · other way -0.51% (n=10) |
| 10 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -4bp hist -3.2–+7.85% · other way -1.8% (n=12) |
| 11 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.45–-0.07% · other way -0.29% (n=10) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.1–+0.78% · other way -1.52% (n=12) |
| 13 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.33–-0.06% · other way +0.39% (n=10) |
| 14 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.14–+0.81% · other way -0.37% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +2bp | 68% | 40 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.6% | 65% | 40 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 65% | 40 | 0.22 | · |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 57% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -6.0% | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +6.3% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 57% | 37 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +2bp | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.8% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |