What if Pharma tariff threat triggers $200B US manufacturing reshore pledges?
Under tariff pressure, Lilly, J&J and Roche pledge ~$200B of US plants; near-term capex weighs on FCF but de-risks supply and lifts US industrial/engineering order books.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Under tariff pressure, Lilly, J&J and Roche pledge ~$200B of US plants; near-term capex weighs on FCF but de-risks supply and lifts US industrial/engineering order books. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Biotech breakthrough ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.85–+1.65% · other way -3.59% (n=12) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.79–+0.6% · other way -2.85% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 18 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -0.7% | 76% | 16 | 0.38 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 68% | 15 | 0.23 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +7.5% · 5d -5.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 14 | 0.20 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +10bp · 5d +3bp | 60% | 18 | 0.16 | · |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.6% | 58% | 18 | 0.13 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.1% | 54% | 16 | 0.06 | · |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -0.3% | 49% | 16 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -3.6% ↺ fades | 44% | 17 | 0.00 | · |