What if Pharma 'voluntary' direct-to-patient pricing blunts MFN threat?
Lilly and Pfizer launch cash direct-to-consumer pricing to pre-empt MFN, partially defusing the political risk and prompting a relief rally in the drug names.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Lilly and Pfizer launch cash direct-to-consumer pricing to pre-empt MFN, partially defusing the political risk and prompting a relief rally in the drug names. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Biotech breakthrough ▲ · Consumer spending ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -9.03–+4.84% · other way -4.42% (n=11) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.03–+2.23% · other way -5.47% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.06–+0.48% · other way +0.36% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -9.24–+14.28% · other way +11.19% (n=12) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -4.21–+7.04% · other way -1.09% (n=12) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.08–+2.28% · other way +9.33% (n=12) |
| 8 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.12–+0.53% · other way -2.38% (n=12) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.4–+0.87% · other way +0.25% (n=12) |
| 10 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.12–+2.6% · other way +6.65% (n=11) |
| 11 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.44–+0.91% · other way +0.19% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 13 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.2% · 5d -9.6% | 79% | 10 | 0.43 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +1.0% | 66% | 13 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.6% | 69% | 13 | 0.28 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +7.0% · 5d -5.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 12 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 12 | 0.15 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +1.0% | 60% | 13 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +14.6% · 5d +0.1% | 57% | 13 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.2% | 57% | 13 | 0.11 | · |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -7.2% | 54% | 10 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 54% | 13 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d 0bp ↺ fades | 54% | 13 | 0.06 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.0% | 51% | 13 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.7% · 5d -3.4% ↺ fades | 49% | 13 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 38% | 8 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |