What if the next-generation obesity pill flops in phase 3?
A marquee oral-obesity Phase 3 miss erases one megacap's growth premium and lifts the incumbent injectable franchise — a relative-value pair (e.g. Pfizer's danuglipron flop boosting Lilly/Novo), not a market event. Pfizer's 2023 oral-GLP-1 discontinuations are the direct analogue: stock dipped, peers rallied, indices flat. The crypto-beta cascade is spurious; spillover is contained to the obesity complex.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Marquee next-gen oral obesity drug misses phase 3 efficacy and safety endpoints, wiping out a megacap pharma's growth premium. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -11.34–+1.51% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.33–+0.44% · other way +24.57% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.36–+0.04% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade-short on MSTR: an obesity-pill flop has no MSTR transmission; the +14.8% is BTC beta harvested entirely in 2024-25 bull windows, not this shock.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.2% · 5d -7.6% | 75% | 40 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.9% | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -3.4% | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -3.2% | 55% | 40 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.07 | · |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.1% | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +2bp · 5d +1bp | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | · |
Why this probability
Oral obesity phase-3 misses common in crowded pipeline; specific megacap flop within 6mo moderate. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.