What if the next-generation obesity pill flops in phase 3?
A marquee oral-obesity Phase 3 miss erases one megacap's growth premium and lifts the incumbent injectable franchise — a relative-value pair (e.g. Pfizer's danuglipron flop boosting Lilly/Novo), not a market event. Pfizer's 2023 oral-GLP-1 discontinuations are the direct analogue: stock dipped, peers rallied, indices flat. The crypto-beta cascade is spurious; spillover is contained to the obesity complex.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Marquee next-gen oral obesity drug misses phase 3 efficacy and safety endpoints, wiping out a megacap pharma's growth premium. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.