What if Philippines AI-displacement triggers OFW redeployment crisis?
AI automation of low-skill overseas and BPO jobs compresses two external pillars at once, straining the labor-export model and consumption; automation-displacement rises and a weaker peso pressures EM_FX.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. AI automation of low-skill overseas and BPO jobs compresses two external pillars at once, straining the labor-export model and consumption; automation-displacement rises and a weaker peso pressures EM_FX. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Job displacement ▲ · Consumer spending ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -11.61–+0.8% · other way -1.54% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.36–-0.21% · other way -0.13% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -5.43–+12.37% · other way +21.92% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -6.83–+1.92% · other way +2.81% (n=12) |
| 6 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.6–+0.7% · other way -2.34% (n=12) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.63–+2.15% · other way +2.3% (n=12) |
| 8 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.24–+1.73% · other way +0.47% (n=12) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.12–+0.27% · other way +4.82% (n=12) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.3–+0.04% · other way +0.04% (n=12) |
| 11 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.22–-0.13% · other way -0.07% (n=12) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.36–+0.01% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.21–+4.04% · other way +16.32% (n=12) |
| 14 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.24–-0.02% · other way -0.78% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.1% | 77% | 40 | 0.47 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.0% · 5d -7.0% | 79% | 40 | 0.45 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 65% | 40 | 0.26 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 65% | 40 | 0.24 | · |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.0% · 5d -4.7% | 63% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 60% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d +0.6% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +12.1% · 5d +0.3% | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -2.1% | 56% | 40 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +2bp · 5d +1bp | 56% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.2% | 53% | 40 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 44% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |