What if Philippines BPO collapse spills into property and banks?
A sharp AI-driven contraction in BPO floor space hits Metro Manila office REITs and bank exposure, amplifying the services-export shock; risk-off, automation-displacement and a weaker peso pressure EM_FX.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A sharp AI-driven contraction in BPO floor space hits Metro Manila office REITs and bank exposure, amplifying the services-export shock; risk-off, automation-displacement and a weaker peso pressure EM_FX. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Job displacement ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.46–+0.01% · other way +23.19% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -16.09–+1.04% · other way -3.45% (n=11) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.78–-0.08% · other way +0.03% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -8.38–+2.13% · other way +2.36% (n=11) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.87–+4.69% · other way -1.48% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -4.55–+0.69% · other way +4.74% (n=11) |
| 8 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.58–-0.07% · other way +0.29% (n=12) |
| 9 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.67–-0.02% · other way -0.22% (n=12) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.42–+0.09% · other way +0.23% (n=12) |
| 11 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.38–-0.11% · other way -2.44% (n=12) |
| 12 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.39–-0.05% · other way -0.41% (n=12) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.16–+0.3% · other way +17.06% (n=11) |
| 14 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.32–-0.04% · other way -0.21% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -12.4% · 5d -9.1% | 81% | 20 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.0% | 71% | 21 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 64% | 35 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.2% · 5d -4.2% | 65% | 20 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -2.2% | 61% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.3% | 58% | 37 | 0.15 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -2.9% | 58% | 37 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 58% | 37 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 54% | 20 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.9% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 52% | 29 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.2% · 5d +1.3% | 52% | 38 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 52% | 37 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 52% | 40 | 0.03 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -10bp · 5d -5bp | 52% | 40 | 0.03 | · |