What if Philippines inflation re-acceleration forces BSP back to hikes?
Rice and energy price shocks push CPI above target, forcing Bangko Sentral to halt cuts and tighten, squeezing consumption and equities; the inflation surprise and risk-off pressure Philippine assets even as the peso firms.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Rice and energy price shocks push CPI above target, forcing Bangko Sentral to halt cuts and tighten, squeezing consumption and equities; the inflation surprise and risk-off pressure Philippine assets even as the peso firms. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -4.16–+0.74% · other way +33.17% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -5.35–+2.85% · other way -2.3% (n=11) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.59–-0.13% · other way -0.4% (n=12) |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.63–+1.13% · other way +4.16% (n=11) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.58–+0.48% · other way +7.7% (n=11) |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.54–+0.4% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.0–+4.49% · other way -5.03% (n=12) |
| 9 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.16–-0.08% · other way +1.06% (n=12) |
| 10 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.5–+4.37% · other way +24.19% (n=11) |
| 11 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist -4.3–+3.4% · other way -1.1% (n=12) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.38–+0.56% · other way +1.31% (n=12) |
| 13 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist -7.33–+4.76% · other way -0.3% (n=12) |
| 14 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.45–+0.04% · other way -0.36% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -2.9% | 66% | 32 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +4.5% · 5d +4.4% | 65% | 14 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 63% | 30 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 61% | 32 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -3.9% | 62% | 8 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d -4bp | 56% | 39 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -8bp · 5d -5bp | 54% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -9.1% | 55% | 14 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -3.3% | 54% | 16 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.2% | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | · |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -3.8% | 55% | 15 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 52% | 32 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.6% | 43% | 34 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.2% · 5d +6.2% | 50% | 33 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |