What if Polish RRF cash unlock sends PLN to 4.15/EUR?
Final clearance of Poland's recovery-fund milestones releases a backloaded disbursement wave, pulling EUR/PLN toward 4.15 as convergence inflows and reform credibility compound.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Final clearance of Poland's recovery-fund milestones releases a backloaded disbursement wave, pulling EUR/PLN toward 4.15 as convergence inflows and reform credibility compound. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · Credit spreads ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.