What if Polish TTF-linked power costs squeeze heavy industry?
A European gas spike feeds through to Polish electricity prices, raising input costs for energy-intensive CEE manufacturers and denting industrial margins and the zloty.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A European gas spike feeds through to Polish electricity prices, raising input costs for energy-intensive CEE manufacturers and denting industrial margins and the zloty. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · European energy ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -5.61–+6.92% · other way -1.59% (n=8) |
| 2 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.63–+0.72% · other way +7.97% (n=11) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.97–+1.99% · other way +20.17% (n=11) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.99–+2.86% · other way +6.04% (n=8) |
| 6 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.8–+0.17% · other way +0.3% (n=10) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.27–+0.34% · other way +1.42% (n=11) |
| 8 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.27–+0.0% · other way +0.08% (n=10) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.14–+1.28% · other way +10.48% (n=8) |
| 10 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.55–+0.14% · other way -0.5% (n=11) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.29–+0.66% · other way +1.9% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 34 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.4% · 5d +2.0% | 71% | 24 | 0.35 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -2.8% | 71% | 14 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 67% | 21 | 0.26 | · |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -0.4% | 61% | 23 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 61% | 23 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +7.7% · 5d -4.9% ↺ fades | 60% | 10 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +1.0% ↺ fades | 59% | 22 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.4% | 57% | 23 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -3.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 23 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 56% | 27 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -4.4% | 55% | 11 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.4% | 52% | 23 | 0.04 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +1bp · 5d +4bp | 51% | 34 | 0.03 | · |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 41% | 22 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |