What if China's all-out property rescue pivot fails to revive sales durably?
A high-profile pivot to all-out property support (rate cuts, purchase-limit removal, state buying of unsold homes) fails to durably revive sales, confirming the demand problem is structural.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A high-profile pivot to all-out property support (rate cuts, purchase-limit removal, state buying of unsold homes) fails to durably revive sales, confirming the demand problem is structural. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · China stimulus ▼ · Consumer spending ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -3.98–+0.98% · other way +1.0% (n=12) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.68–-0.15% · other way +2.36% (n=12) |
| 3 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.13–+0.3% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 4 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.97–+1.01% · other way -2.98% (n=12) |
| 5 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.36–-0.18% · other way -0.91% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -17.77–+1.29% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.73–+0.54% · other way +24.57% (n=12) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -12.37–+1.58% · other way +4.71% (n=12) |
| 10 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.29–-0.08% · other way -0.81% (n=12) |
| 11 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.31–+0.26% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.34–-0.04% · other way +2.4% (n=12) |
| 13 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.38–+0.65% · other way +3.18% (n=12) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -5.07–+1.56% · other way +5.56% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -13.8% · 5d -14.4% | 80% | 31 | 0.43 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -10.0% · 5d -9.0% | 75% | 33 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.0% | 64% | 36 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -2.0% | 62% | 31 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.5% | 64% | 36 | 0.22 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.4% | 63% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.1% | 62% | 36 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -4.3% | 62% | 36 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d +0.6% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -2.1% | 58% | 38 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 36 | 0.11 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -5.5% | 52% | 36 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |