What if a psychedelic therapy wins approval for depression?
FDA approval of MDMA/psilocybin for treatment-resistant depression opens a new category — long the pure-plays (Compass, atai, Lykos-adjacent), a thematic biotech pop, not a broad risk-on bid. The 2023 GLP-1 craze is the rhyme: a real TAM lifted the names hard while the tape was indifferent. Forward caveat: REMS-style controlled administration caps the addressable rollout, so the move is name-specific, not macro.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. MDMA or psilocybin therapy wins FDA approval for treatment-resistant depression, opening a multibillion-dollar psychedelic-medicine market. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.