What if a rapamycin trial proves it extends human healthspan?
Direct chain: a positive rapamycin healthspan RCT spikes off-label demand and a generic-supplier scramble — long generic/compounding suppliers and longevity-clinic names, a niche demand pop. Rhymes with the metformin/TAME-trial longevity interest that drove off-label demand without a big equity catalyst. Negligible macro impact — the tiny risk-on cascade is immaterial; trade it as a small generics/supplement-supplier long, nothing index-level.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Large rapamycin RCT shows meaningful human healthspan extension, spiking off-label demand and generic-supplier scramble. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.