What if a rapamycin trial proves it extends human healthspan?
Direct chain: a positive rapamycin healthspan RCT spikes off-label demand and a generic-supplier scramble — long generic/compounding suppliers and longevity-clinic names, a niche demand pop. Rhymes with the metformin/TAME-trial longevity interest that drove off-label demand without a big equity catalyst. Negligible macro impact — the tiny risk-on cascade is immaterial; trade it as a small generics/supplement-supplier long, nothing index-level.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Large rapamycin RCT shows meaningful human healthspan extension, spiking off-label demand and generic-supplier scramble. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -3.22–+6.82% · other way -4.38% (n=12) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -5.75–+11.76% · other way +7.69% (n=12) |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.98–+2.58% · other way -4.93% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.07–+0.54% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.73–+6.75% · other way +0.44% (n=12) |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.17–+0.54% · other way -0.17% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +3bp | 65% | 40 | 0.23 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -6.8% | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +6.3% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 56% | 36 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.8% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -4.0% ↺ fades | 55% | 31 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +6.5% · 5d -2.3% ↺ fades | 43% | 28 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +11.4% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 47% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 47% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 45% | 40 | 0.00 | · |
Why this probability
Rapamycin RCT showing human healthspan gain possible but trials slow, endpoints hard to hit. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.