What if Real-yield decline reignites the BTC store-of-value bid?
Falling real interest rates lower the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset, drawing capital back into BTC as a debasement hedge.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Falling real interest rates lower the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset, drawing capital back into BTC as a debasement hedge. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▲ · Crypto confidence ▲ · Real yields ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +5.1% hist -1.67–+10.28% · other way +1.69% (n=11) |
| 2 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +3.9% hist +1.14–+2.32% · other way -16.46% (n=7) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +2.8% hist +1.02–+1.85% · other way -16.82% (n=7) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +2.8% hist -0.43–+4.68% · other way -5.23% (n=6) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.0% hist -3.39–+9.47% · other way -0.02% (n=6) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +1.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.42–+0.38% · other way +0.32% (n=11) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.37–+0.41% · other way -1.09% (n=12) |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -4bp hist -3.86–+3.86% · other way -24.3% (n=12) |
| 10 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -4bp hist -3.73–+6.0% · other way -24.6% (n=12) |
| 11 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.22–+0.29% · other way -2.34% (n=11) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.02–+0.31% · other way +1.77% (n=12) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.13–+0.24% · other way +2.75% (n=11) |
| 14 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.3–+2.84% · other way +1.87% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -8.8% | 68% | 21 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.7% | 66% | 40 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.5% | 63% | 40 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.4% | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 63% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +2bp | 61% | 40 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.9% | 61% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -2.5% | 61% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -2.3% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.0% | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +1bp | 56% | 40 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -3.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 40 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -3.3% | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.1% | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |