Real yields
Every scenario in which real yields is a modeled driver — one risk, read across the whole library.
998 scenarios touch this risk, ranked by probability.
51%▼ 1–3 years
What if Fiscal-dominance debasement trade drives gold above $3,500?
50%▲ 0–6 months
What if Real-rate reversal sparks gold ETF outflows and a sharp pullback?
50%▼ 1–3 years
What if Credible bipartisan US deficit deal pulls the term premium lower?
50%▼ 1–3 years
What if DM bond bull market: disinflation plus cuts drive a bull-steepener?
50%▼ 1–3 years
What if DM disinflation completes, central banks pivot to a cutting cycle?
47%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed declares the last mile won and front-loads relief cuts?
47%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed cuts and long yields fall together in a textbook bull rally?
46%▼ 1–3 years
What if US revenue surprise shrinks the deficit, supply fears recede?
46%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI productivity validates 'higher-for-longer' growth, real yields up?
44%▼ 1–3 years
What if US deficit-to-GDP falls below 5% on spending caps and growth?
42%▼ 1–3 years
What if UK fiscal credibility restored, gilt risk premium drains away?
42%▼ 1–3 years
What if US PAYGO discipline returns, deficit path bends lower?
42%▲ 6–18 months
What if EM real-rate champions draw record carry inflows on credible cuts?
41%▼ 1–3 years
What if Bipartisan entitlement fix removes the US long-run deficit overhang?
41%▼ 1–3 years
What if Fed cuts its r-star estimate, anchoring a lower-for-longer regime?
40%▼ 0–6 months
What if Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easing?
39%▲ 0–6 months
What if a 30-year Treasury auction draws a record tail?
39%▼ 3–10 years
What if Aging entrenches secular stagnation, r* sinks below 0.5%?
38%▼ 1–3 years
What if Global term premium compresses as inflation re-anchors?
38%▼ 1–3 years
What if Global disinflation lets DM grow into their debt loads?
37%▼ 1–3 years
What if Growth-friendly US consolidation: bonds rally without recession?
37%▲ 1–3 years
What if Term-premium normalization without crisis as supply is well-absorbed?
37%▼ 1–3 years
What if Soft-landing fiscal dividend: falling rates shrink DM deficits?
36%▲ 1–3 years
What if Moody's strips the US of another notch to Aa2?
36%▲ 1–3 years
What if Gold outperforms as confidence in long-bond Treasuries fades?
36%▲ 6–18 months
What if Hawkish dot-plot surprise: median path lifts the terminal rate?
35%▲ 6–18 months
What if a 900 billion euro Dutch pension switch dislocates the bond market?
35%▼ 1–3 years
What if Gold demand surges as negative real yields return?
35%▲ 1–3 years
What if US fiscal populism steepens the curve, 30Y tops 5%?
34%▼ 6–18 months
What if Energy-driven CPI undershoot pulls breakevens lower?
34%▼ 1–3 years
What if US rating outlook restored to stable as deficit path improves?
34%▼ 1–3 years
What if Goldilocks fiscal-monetary mix: deficits fall as growth holds?
33%▼ 1–3 years
What if Productivity-led DM disinflation rallies bonds and equities together?
32%▼ 6–18 months
What if Credible disinflation re-anchors expectations?
32%▼ 6–18 months
What if Brazil passes a credible fiscal framework, calming bond markets?
32%▼ 1–3 years
What if UK fiscal rules reform stabilizes gilts without austerity?
32%▼ 1–3 years
What if Falling real yields ignite a duration-led risk-asset melt-up?
32%▼ 1–3 years
What if UK debt ratio stabilizes as growth surprises and OBR signs off?
32%▼ 1–3 years
What if DM bull-steepener: rate cuts revive housing and risk together?
32%▼ 1–3 years
What if UK gilt issuance falls as the deficit undershoots forecasts?
32%▼ 1–3 years
What if DM term-premium mean-reversion as supply and demand re-balance?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if Bond-proxy de-rating on higher long rates pressures utility valuations?
32%▼ 3–10 years
What if Low-r* world rewards long duration as growth scarcity returns?
31%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed pivot to cuts ignites a fresh gold breakout?
31%▼ 6–18 months
What if US fiscal commission deal restores the long-bond bid?
31%▼ 1–3 years
What if UK returns to bond-market grace as fiscal headroom rebuilds?
31%▼ 0–6 months
What if Fed-pivot melt-up: rate-cut hopes ignite a multiple expansion?
31%▼ 6–18 months
What if Cooling wages clear the way for a Fed dovish pivot?
31%▼ 3–10 years
What if Japanification of the West: low r*, low inflation, bid bonds?
31%▼ 3–10 years
What if Low-r* gift lets DM sovereigns carry higher debt sustainably?
31%▼ 3–10 years
What if Aging Europe locks in a low-r*, bid-Bund equilibrium?
30%▲ 6–18 months
What if the BoJ hikes to 1% faster than priced and inflicts large unrealized bond losses?
30%▲ 6–18 months
What if EM real-rate carry super-cycle pulls in record cross-border inflows?
30%▲ 1–3 years
What if CAPE at 38x compresses forward 10-year equity returns?
30%▼ 3–10 years
What if Japan's workforce shrinks below 60m, capping potential growth at ~0.5%?
30%▲ 3–10 years
What if Global old-age dependency doubles, reframing the long-run return regime?
30%▲ 0–6 months
What if Real-yield spike crushes long-duration crypto valuations?
29%▲ 6–18 months
What if Orderly BoJ exit lets the JPY firm without breaking global carry?
29%▲ 6–18 months
What if Midterm sweep unlocks fresh fiscal stimulus?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if Nigeria attracts hot money as real yields turn deeply positive?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if EM real-rate premium attracts global bond tourists?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if High-real-rate EM bloc anchors a multi-year carry-allocation shift?
29%▼ 6–18 months
What if Falling rates plus load growth power an XLU total-return rally?
29%▼ 6–18 months
What if Pension de-risking floods US long bonds, term premium fades?
29%▼ 6–18 months
What if BoE ends active gilt sales, removing a supply overhang?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if Coordinated DM fiscal restraint shrinks deficits in unison?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if AI-driven productivity boom outgrows DM debt without austerity?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if Coordinated CB guidance caps DM term premia and steadies curves?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if Treasury-yield peak unlocks a record rotation into long bonds?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if Falling DM term premia revive the classic 60/40 bond hedge?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if DM fiscal councils gain teeth, anchoring credible deficit paths?
29%▼ 6–18 months
What if ECB and BoE coordinate orderly QT, sovereign curves stay calm?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if Dividend-growth bid returns as payout discipline rewards value?
29%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed pre-commits to a clear reaction-function rule, calming rate vol?
29%▼ 3–10 years
What if Fed adopts a flexible price-level target to recover lost credibility?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if Insurance-float reinvestment at higher yields lifts carriers?
29%▼ 3–10 years
What if Demographic saving glut compresses the equity risk premium too?
29%▲ 3–10 years
What if Goodhart-Pradhan reversal: aging pushes r* AND inflation UP?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Europe launches a common-defence Eurobond and floods supply?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if Real-yield repricing on fiscal-dominance fears?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if EM real-rate compression rally as inflation falls faster than rates?
28%▼ 0–6 months
What if Strong US 30y auction with record indirect bid calms duration fear?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if JGB 30y hits a record as BoJ QT meets debt-funded stimulus?
28%▼ 1–3 years
What if Synchronized G7 easing cycle steepens curves and lifts risk?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if BoJ rate hikes draw Japanese capital home from US and EU bonds?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed framework review drops average-inflation-targeting for a clean 2%?
28%▼ 3–10 years
What if Aging keeps the Fed's long-run dot anchored near 2.5%?
28%▲ 3–10 years
What if Shrinking global labor force flips disinflation into wage inflation?
28%▼ 6–18 months
What if Real-yield decline reignites the BTC store-of-value bid?
27%▲ 1–3 years
What if Reserve diversification pushes USD share below 55%?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if Brazil fiscal-credibility scare slams the real?
27%▲ 6–18 months
What if Rand carry trade revives as SA real yields stay high?
27%▲ 6–18 months
What if Silver dumps as speculative longs capitulate on rate spike?
27%▲ 6–18 months
What if Gold pressured as a Fed-credibility restoration lifts the dollar?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if US 30y auction tails 5bp+ as dealers choke on duration?
27%▼ 3–10 years
What if Secular-stagnation re-rating drives a multi-year quality-growth bull?
27%▲ 3–10 years
What if Retiree dissaving wave drives r* up, ending the bond bull?
27%▲ 3–10 years
What if Healthcare-cost super-inflation from aging entrenches sticky CPI?
27%▲ 6–18 months
What if Turkey-style CB-independence erosion: USD funding flight?
26%▲ 6–18 months
What if Japan debt-funded stimulus spikes the 30y JGB yield past 3.5%?
26%▲ 0–6 months
What if Energy-led CPI overshoot lifts breakevens and real yields?
26%▲ 6–18 months
What if Gold corrects as a tech-led equity boom crowds it out?
26%▼ 3–10 years
What if DM debt ratios stabilize as r-minus-g turns favorable again?
26%▲ 1–3 years
What if Value-versus-growth mean reversion narrows the valuation gap?
26%▼ 1–3 years
What if Earnings-multiple synergy: rising EPS meets multiple expansion?
26%▲ 1–3 years
What if Fed signals a higher neutral rate (r-star), repricing the long end?
26%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed-cut bull-steepening drives a rotation into long-duration equities?
26%▲ 6–18 months
What if Real-yield spike unwinds the utility-as-yield-substitute trade?
26%▲ 3–10 years
What if Aging-driven dissaving wave shrinks the global savings glut?
26%▼ 3–10 years
What if Aging Asia exports disinflation, pinning regional real yields low?
26%▼ 3–10 years
What if Falling r* revives the 60/40 portfolio's hedge property?
26%▲ 3–10 years
What if China's labor exit removes the global disinflation anchor?
26%▼ 3–10 years
What if Stagnation camp wins: deflation scare drives a duration melt-up?
26%▼ 3–10 years
What if The 'second demographic dividend' lifts capital deepening in aging Asia?
26%▲ 3–10 years
What if Aging shifts the political economy toward inflation-averse hard money?
25%▲ 6–18 months
What if sticky Japanese inflation forces the BoJ into a faster-than-expected hiking path?
25%▼ 1–3 years
What if US Treasury buyer base broadens, term premium falls?
25%▼ 1–3 years
What if EM central banks out-cut the Fed, thinning the carry cushion?
25%▼ 3–10 years
What if Japan's demographic deflation keeps real yields pinned negative?
25%▲ 3–10 years
What if Rising r* meets high debt, igniting DM debt-sustainability fears?
25%▲ 3–10 years
What if Social Security reform deal funds benefits via heavier Treasury supply?
24%▲ 1–3 years
What if the US peacetime deficit tops 9% of GDP?
24%▲ 0–6 months
What if $1 trillion of US CRE debt matures into rates far above original coupons?
24%▼ 1–3 years
What if Fed restarts QE/yield-curve control on stress?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if TIPS breakevens widen on tariff inflation?
24%▲ 1–3 years
What if Positive EM real-rate gap to DM widens the carry buffer?
24%▼ 0–6 months
What if Gold breaks out as inflation expectations resurge?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed ends QT and stabilizes reserves, easing Treasury indigestion?
24%▼ 1–3 years
What if ECB rate cuts plus TPI backstop anchor a periphery rally?
24%▼ 1–3 years
What if Falling real yields re-rate equities higher across the board?
24%▼ 1–3 years
What if Small-cap revival: Russell 2000 breaks out on rate relief?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed raises its inflation target to 3% to ease the debt burden?
24%▲ 1–3 years
What if A reform-minded Fed Board reasserts independence, firming the dollar?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if BOJ exit repatriation drags US Treasury and credit demand lower?
24%▼ 3–10 years
What if Eurozone aging caps ECB's neutral rate below 1.5%?
24%▲ 3–10 years
What if Aging-driven inflation regime breaks the stock-bond hedge?
24%▲ 3–10 years
What if Aging-driven primary deficits collide with a rising-r* world?
24%▲ 3–10 years
What if Aging entitlements push US mandatory spending past 70% of outlays?
24%▼ 3–10 years
What if Corporate DB-pension de-risking floods the long-bond market with demand?
24%▲ 3–10 years
What if Aging-driven healthcare costs blow out US fiscal projections?
24%▲ 3–10 years
What if Aging DM bloc's combined pension gap reframes sovereign risk?
23%▲ 3–10 years
What if Multipolar reserve order erodes dollar primacy?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if Sticky inflation forces a hawkish Fed hold?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if Precious-metals washout on a hawkish inflation-reacceleration scare?
23%▼ 6–18 months
What if Silver-gold ratio compresses as both metals enter a bull phase?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if JGB 40y dislocation: super-long auction draws collapse?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed hawkish surprise drives a dollar wrecking-ball across EM?
23%▲ 3–10 years
What if Inflationary-aging regime crushes the long end, bear-steepens curves?
23%▲ 1–3 years
What if Japan fiscal-dominance fear steepens JGB curve, weakens JPY?
22%▲ 3–10 years
What if retiring baby boomers force a great asset unwind?
22%▲ 6–18 months
What if BoJ exit from yield curve control balloons aggregate unrealized securities losses at regional banks?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if Brazil debt-to-GDP breaches 90%, threatening the rating?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if A fourth agency strips the US of its last AAA rating?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if Stock-bond correlation normalizes, reviving 60/40 portfolios?
22%▲ 0–6 months
What if Powell presser walks back market easing bets in a hawkish pivot?
22%▲ 6–18 months
What if EM central bank hikes pre-emptively, out-hawking the Fed?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if Central banks slow gold buying as dollar credibility is restored?
22%▲ 6–18 months
What if Higher-for-longer rates trigger biotech cash-runway insolvency wave?
22%▼ 6–18 months
What if Auto-affordability relief revives volumes and dealer-and-OEM earnings?
22%▲ 3–10 years
What if Demographic inflation forces a higher Fed neutral-rate estimate?
22%▼ 3–10 years
What if Australia's superannuation cushions its aging fiscal burden?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if US grand fiscal bargain restores the debt anchor (good)?
22%▼ 3–10 years
What if Coordinated 2% billionaire minimum tax eases deficits (good)?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if a bond-market revolt forces sudden US austerity?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if Bear-flattener as inflation forces higher-for-longer?
21%▲ 0–6 months
What if Risk-on melt-up drains gold as capital chases equities?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if US 30y breaks 5.5% on term-premium spiral, not Fed?
21%▲ 3–10 years
What if Secular-stagnation relapse: negative r-star caps trend growth?
21%▼ 1–3 years
What if Disinflationary earnings boom: falling rates and costs lift multiples?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed cuts too soon: a 'mission accomplished' pivot reignites inflation?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if Post-Powell chair: a credible inflation hawk reanchors expectations?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if Post-Powell chair: a dovish loyalist sparks an independence scare?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if FOMC dissents multiply, fracturing the committee's policy signal?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if Fed hardens its anti-inflation mandate after a credibility scare?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if BOJ normalization lures Japanese savings home, draining global duration?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if ECB hawkish surprise: a hold defies dovish market pricing?
21%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed rate cuts re-rate long-duration biotech off multi-year lows?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if Residential-solar demand slump deepens installer financial distress?
21%▲ 3–10 years
What if Reversal camp wins: bond-bear regime as r* breaks decisively higher?
21%▲ 3–10 years
What if Dutch-style pension reform forces a global duration reshuffle?
21%▼ 3–10 years
What if Bipartisan entitlement fix removes a structural fiscal cloud (good)?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if an overvalued housing market collapses in Canada or Australia?
20%▼ 3–10 years
What if secular stagnation reprices long-duration growth assets?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if the Bank of England cuts rates into sticky inflation?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if Swedish property companies face a refinancing squeeze as bond markets shut?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if Reserve managers rotate from USD into euros and gold?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if EM central banks stockpile gold over Treasuries?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if Brazil court-ordered spending blows a hole in the budget?
20%▼ 6–18 months
What if EM real-yield collapse as cuts outrun disinflation erodes carry?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if Reserve fire-sale of Treasuries by EMs lifts US yields and the dollar?
20%▼ 6–18 months
What if Real-yield collapse on growth scare ignites gold?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if BoJ stealth taper of JGB buying jolts the long end?
20%▼ 6–18 months
What if Coordinated DM QT pause stabilizes long-end yields globally?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if No-landing reacceleration: growth and inflation both run warm?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if Hot core CPI forces the Fed to pause an in-progress cutting cycle?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed 'higher-for-longer' triggers a corporate maturity-wall refi shock?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if Fed balance-sheet losses spark a political solvency row?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed governor confirmation fight injects policy-path uncertainty?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if Global central-bank gold buying accelerates on dollar-trust erosion?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed cuts but long yields rise as a term-premium 'conundrum' bites?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if Independence-loss premium steepens the US curve and bids gold?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if BOJ becomes the swing factor in global duration as it exits ZIRP?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if Auto-loan rate shock stalls new-vehicle affordability and demand?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if Apartment-supply glut crushes rents and multifamily developer returns?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if Power-capex inflation squeezes utility allowed returns and earnings?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if Falling rates re-rate utility bond proxies alongside load growth?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if Pension-fund flight from equities into bonds hits stock valuations?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if A sovereign raises retirement age, easing its long-run debt path?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if US entitlement-funding cliff steepens long-end yields?
19%▲ 1–3 years
What if Yen normalization reverses a decade of JPY-funded global carry?
19%▲ 1–3 years
What if Inflation re-acceleration forces a hawkish surprise?
19%▲ 0–6 months
What if EM-carry crash on a synchronized DM rate-vol blowout?
19%▲ 1–3 years
What if De-dollarization stall sends gold into a deep correction?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Foreign reserve flight out of Treasuries lifts the term premium?
19%▼ 1–3 years
What if Fiscal-dominance regime shift un-anchors DM breakevens?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if German debt-brake reform unlocks Bund supply and investment?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Wage-price spiral: catch-up pay demands un-anchor core inflation?
19%▼ 1–3 years
What if Real-yield decline melt-up: falling real rates re-rate long duration?
19%▼ 1–3 years
What if Credibility-restored bond rally: anchored expectations re-rate duration?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Rate-shock de-rating: 100bp real-yield jump hits long-duration?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Pension de-risking glide path drains equity demand structurally?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed's preferred PCE re-accelerates, killing the cut narrative?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed forward-guidance error wrong-foots the entire rates market?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if EV-startup shakeout drives bankruptcies across the cohort?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Utility sector-wide cost-of-capital spike on long-rate back-up?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if US Fed-independence scare lifts term premium, gold and BTC?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if the Bank of England speeds up gilt sales into a fragile market?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if US 10-year Treasury yields break above 5% on hot inflation and heavy supply?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if the BoJ formally abandons its yield ceiling and 10-year JGB yields gap toward 1.5%?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Japan's exit from yield-curve control proves disorderly, with repeated yield overshoots?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if the BoJ hikes faster than the market prices and abruptly reprices the JGB curve?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if BoJ QT + heavy issuance steepen the JGB curve, hit global duration?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Tariff-driven inflation forces Fed back to hikes?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if China dumps US Treasuries as a sanctions weapon?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if Fed loses inflation-expectations anchor?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Rising rates de-rate utility bond proxies despite load growth?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if US net interest outlays top defense, crowding-out fear bites?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Yen-carry unwind from JGB shock drains global duration?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if UK gilt crisis 2.0: unfunded package sends 30y +150bp?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if Gold dethrones bonds as the DM reserve-haven of choice?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if US 'twin deficits' scare drives a simultaneous bond and dollar sell-off?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if DM curve bear-flattens as CBs fight inflation into a debt wall?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if Bund safe-haven bid surges as DM fiscal fears favor German paper?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if Fiscal-dominance inflation: deficits override the Fed, breakevens climb?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if Duration rally bull market: yields fall, long bonds return double digits?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Small-cap solvency squeeze: floating-rate debt crushes Russell?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Earnings-multiple air-pocket: P/E and EPS fall together?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Goldilocks-to-overheat: melt-up forces a hawkish lean?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if Fed forced to monetize deficits as fiscal dominance takes hold?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed lets the curve re-steepen via active long-end bond sales?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Hawkish hold cracks private credit and a leveraged-loan repricing?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Sticky global services inflation forces central banks to re-tighten?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if Macro risk-off and a strong dollar squeeze the crypto bid?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Ratings agency flags aging-driven debt path, dings a DM sovereign?
18%▲ 3–10 years
What if Pension dis-saving thins demand for ultra-long government bonds?
18%▲ 3–10 years
What if Aging Europe pension-cost surge crowds out public investment?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if foreign money flees India's bond index?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if a gilt spike retriggers UK pension margin calls?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if the US 10-year term premium spikes 80bp, pushing yields above 5.25%?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Brazil's fiscal credibility collapses and triggers a sovereign risk-premium spike?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Japanese real yields turn meaningfully positive for the first time in decades?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed-independence fight un-anchors long-end yields?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if Sudden-stop scare as US real yields spike hits Indian bonds?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Rating agency methodology change widens EM debt-affordability scores?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if Fed-hawkish repricing drains EM-FX through the real-rate channel?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Bond vigilantes stage a buyers' strike on the US deficit?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Treasury shifts issuance long, duration supply shock hits?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if Bund scarcity reverses as Germany ramps fiscal spending?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if US Treasury buyback program fails to stem long-end cheapening?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if US tax-cut extension reopens the deficit, supply fears resurge?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if UK Autumn Budget triggers a mini gilt tantrum on borrowing upgrade?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if Wartime-style fiscal expansion lifts DM defense borrowing and yields?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if Onshoring cost-push: pricier domestic production keeps inflation sticky?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if Credible fiscal consolidation rally: deficit path stabilizes?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if Financial-conditions easing impulse: looser FCI front-runs cuts?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if Cost-of-capital relief: falling hurdle rates revive investment?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Buyback-tax and rate squeeze halve net repurchase activity?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Valuation-mean-reversion shock drags multiples to long-run norms?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed independence shock: Treasury overrides QT in a policy clash?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if BoE active gilt sales spike term premium in a fiscal squeeze?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if RBA holds hawkish as Australian inflation proves stubborn?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed wage-spiral fear forces a hawkish hold despite cooling CPI?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if Europe's defense-spending surge floods bond markets with new sovereign supply?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Turkey faces a renewed lira crisis with inflation re-accelerating past 70%?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if Japan enters a genuine wage-price spiral for the first time in decades?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if an unexpectedly strong shunto wage round forces the BoJ to accelerate rate hikes?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if BoJ accelerates QT; fiscal worries lift the JGB term premium?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Gold gives back gains as Europe de-escalates?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Bund yields rise as peace and supply hit the haven bid?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if US fiscal scare lifts term premium sharply?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if Japan JGB scare jolts global duration?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if Dollar-debasement trade dominates allocation?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Gas-spike inflation print revives a Fed-hawkish energy scare?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if LDI doom loop returns as gilt collateral calls cascade?
16%▼ 1–3 years
What if Debt-monetization debasement trade: gold and BTC up, USD down?
16%▲ 0–6 months
What if UK index-linked gilt rout as breakevens spike on a fiscal scare?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if Inflation re-acceleration forces DM to issue into a hawkish CB?
16%▼ 1–3 years
What if Stealth yield-curve control spreads across DM to cap debt service?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if Pension and insurer de-risking shifts to gold from sovereign bonds?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if Inflation second wave: premature easing reignites a 1978-79 echo?
16%▲ 3–10 years
What if Debt-deflation trap: post-bubble deleveraging lifts real debt burdens?
16%▲ 3–10 years
What if Western Japanification: ZLB returns, equities flatline, cash wins?
16%▲ 3–10 years
What if Demographic disinflation: aging workforce drags trend growth and prices?
16%▲ 3–10 years
What if Demographic wage inflation: labor scarcity lifts pay and core CPI?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Risk-parity unwind on inflation shock: stocks and bonds fall together?
16%▲ 0–6 months
What if Hawkish-surprise de-rating: a higher-for-longer repricing?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Cross-asset correlation spike collapses 60/40 diversification?
16%▼ 1–3 years
What if Fed adopts explicit yield-curve control on the 5-year point?
16%▼ 1–3 years
What if A G3 central bank monetizes deficits, breaking the inflation anchor?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Utility wildfire-liability shock blows out a Western utility's credit?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if the 10-year real yield climbs to 3%?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if a 115bp gilt-yield spike triggers LDI margin calls and forced pension gilt sales?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if elevated SOFR pushes a third of leveraged-loan issuers below 1.5x interest coverage?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if interest-coverage ratios for leveraged-loan issuers fall below 1.5x?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if a long-end selloff drives bank AOCI losses past the 2023 SVB-episode scale?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if Brazil's central bank delivers an emergency Selic hike after the real collapses?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if JGB yields jump 100bp in parallel and drive mark-to-market losses across Japanese bank portfolios?
15%▼ 1–3 years
What if central banks buy 1,000+ tonnes of gold a year fearing reserve weaponization?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if a record US flood year overwhelms the National Flood Insurance Program?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if Disorderly dollar drop on twin-deficit panic?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if US term premium hits +150bp as the moderate fiscal anchor breaks?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if Japan debt-service ratio jumps as JGB yields normalize higher?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if BoE active gilt sales clash with a fiscal splurge, long end buckles?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if DM debt wall: $3tn+ of refinancing hits at higher yields?
15%▼ 3–10 years
What if Bond-market loss of confidence forces financial repression in DM?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if Foreign central banks rotate Treasury reserves into bunds and JGBs?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if Global duration de-rating as the 'lower-for-longer' regime dies?
15%▼ 3–10 years
What if Sovereign-debt supercycle peaks, austerity politics return to DM?
15%▲ 3–10 years
What if Demographic pension wall lifts DM term premia structurally?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if US fiscal-tail premium pushes 10y real yields toward 3%?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if Japan downgrade risk re-emerges as stimulus reopens the deficit?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if UK 'moron premium' returns on a leadership-driven fiscal wobble?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if Synchronized G7 bear-steepening as deficits and supply align?
15%▼ 1–3 years
What if Debasement regime: real assets bid as DM real yields go negative?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if Entitlement trust-fund cliff forces a US fiscal reckoning?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if Yen intervention drains FX reserves, MoF sells US Treasuries?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if Bear-steepener scare: term premium jumps as deficits spook bonds?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if Gold-standard nostalgia bid: distrust of fiat lifts XAU structurally?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if Velocity collapse deflation: precautionary hoarding stalls prices?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if Stock-bond correlation flips positive, the 60/40 hedge fails?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if US muni-stress wave from population outflows widens spreads?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if a $1tn leveraged-loan maturity wall accelerates defaults as refinancing fails?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if the US yield curve bear-steepens violently toward 2s10s of plus 100bp?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if a US fiscal-outlook downgrade cascades into agency and municipal spreads?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if the BTP-Bund spread blows out past 300bp on Italian budget slippage?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if the US term premium normalizes toward 150bp, tightening conditions for duration holders?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if capital flight triggers a sudden stop and rand sell-off in South Africa?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if a 100bp rate shock wipes out shinkin banks' unrealized gains and breaches capital buffers?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if banks crowd JGBs into held-to-maturity to avoid losses but face hidden duration risk?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if the BoJ accelerates balance-sheet runoff and sharply widens the JGB term premium?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if speculative-grade borrowers must refinance at 10 to 12 percent yields and coverage falls below 1x?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if a record 2025 to 2027 maturity wall forces low-rated issuers to refinance at punitive coupons?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if aggregate high-yield interest-coverage ratios fall below 2x as refinanced debt carries double the coupon?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if competing industrial subsidies escalate into a global subsidy war?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if a major cyclone hits an emerging economy with almost no insurance?
14%▼ 6–18 months
What if Bunds rally as a haven on eastern-flank escalation?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if Failed US 10y auction forces an emergency Fed liquidity line?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if DM 'higher-for-longer' debt service crowds out public investment?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if Deflationary demand shock: sudden spending freeze undershoots target?
14%▲ 0–6 months
What if Services superinflation: shelter and insurance keep core PCE above 4%?
14%▼ 1–3 years
What if Yield-curve control DM debut: a central bank caps long yields?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if Average-inflation-targeting overshoot: Fed lets it run, breakevens rise?
14%▲ 3–10 years
What if Liquidity-trap relapse: rate cuts fail to revive flat demand?
14%▲ 0–6 months
What if Real-yield spike gold drawdown: TIPS surge knocks bullion lower?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if Inflation-targeting abandonment: a major central bank lifts its target?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if Goods deflation, services inflation tug-of-war stalls core?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if Bond-vigilante revolt: deficits punished with a buyers' strike?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if renewed Eskom and Transnet bailouts push South Africa's debt past 80% of GDP?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if fiscal uncertainty and oil weakness drive a sharp Colombian peso sell-off?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if Hungary's twin deficits and EU standoff drive a forint crisis and emergency rate hikes?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if Italy re-enters recession as high real rates and BTP spreads tighten credit?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if UK stagflation and gilt volatility blow out sterling investment-grade spreads?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if UK leveraged borrowers face a refinancing wall into sterling rates above their original coupons?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if the US equity risk premium normalizes from near zero as AI optimism fades?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if 40y JGB yield melt-up triggers a global carry-trade unwind?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if Japan fiscal-credibility scare lifts JGB yields and term premia?
13%▲ 0–6 months
What if Oil-shock $130 Brent with gold FALLING?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if UK loses single-A footing as debt-to-GDP grinds past 110%?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if Synchronized DM term-premium shock repriced across all G7 curves?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if US debt spiral self-reinforces: higher yields, wider deficit, repeat?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if Japan's debt math cracks if 10y JGB clears 2%?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if UK gilt remit balloons, DMO struggles to place long-dated supply?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if Auction strike spreads from one DM market to another via RV desks?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if Sticky UK inflation: services CPI keeps the BoE hawkish into stall?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if Higher-for-longer regime: real yields anchor above 2.5% for years?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if Japan exits deflation: BoJ normalizes, global yields drift higher?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if Recession with sticky inflation: rate cuts blocked by hot core?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if Recession-led disinflation overshoot: slack drags inflation below 1%?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if China caps its dollar reserves?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if inflation reaccelerates toward 5% and forces the Fed to resume rate hikes?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if a second gilt-yield surge exhausts the liquidity buffers LDI funds rebuilt after 2022?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if a renewed gilt selloff again outpaces LDI collateral waterfalls for a third time?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if record-leverage 2021-2022 take-private LBOs default under higher rates?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if a UK fiscal wobble pushes the 30-year gilt yield above 6%?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if BoJ normalization sends the 10-year JGB yield up 100bp toward 2.5%?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if Germany suspends its debt brake and a big Bund-issuance step-up lifts term premia?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if higher-for-longer rates compound CRE refinancing stress at US regional banks?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if a joint Mexico and Pemex downgrade to junk triggers a 20% peso depreciation?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if Pakistan devalues the rupee sharply under IMF conditionality and spikes inflation?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if a fresh energy shock pushes euro-area inflation back above 5% and halts ECB cuts?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if persistent inflation forces the BoJ toward a 1.75% policy rate far beyond market pricing?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if elevated USD-JPY hedging costs turn Japanese institutions' foreign-bond carry deeply negative?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Bank Indonesia is forced into an emergency rate-hiking cycle to defend the rupiah?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if a sharp rise in Malaysian government bond yields inflicts large bank revaluation losses?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if a jump in US real yields triggers a sharp gold selloff?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if the US investment-grade curve bear-steepens and crushes long-duration returns?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if pension de-risking flows reverse and remove the structural bid for long US credit?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if euro-area sub-investment-grade issuers hit a concentrated 2025 to 2027 refinancing wall?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if a run on Tether forces it to dump $120bn of Treasury bills?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if sustained great-power tension forces European defense budgets toward 3-5% of GDP?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if a major hurricane overwhelms Florida's insurer of last resort?
12%▲ 3–10 years
What if higher climate damage estimates cut long-run potential output and lift term premia?
12%▲ 3–10 years
What if rising sea levels strand waterfront commercial property in Miami and the Gulf?
12%▲ 3–10 years
What if disaster-driven out-migration erodes tax bases in flood- and fire-exposed counties?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Oil-shock stagflation forces a Fed hawkish hold?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if Second G7 reserve seizure triggers USD-confidence loss?
12%▼ 0–6 months
What if Gold and silver gap up on a sudden Fed dovish surprise?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if UK bond vigilantes punish a giveaway Budget, sterling sells off?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if De-anchored expectations: a Fed credibility shock spikes breakevens?
12%▼ 1–3 years
What if Inflate-away the debt: tolerated 4% inflation erodes real liabilities?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if Sticky-core, soft-headline split: Fed trapped by divergent gauges?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if Wage-price spiral entrenchment: indexation locks in 5% inflation?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if Negative-rates redux: a major central bank cuts below zero again?
11%▼ 1–3 years
What if the Fed caps long-end yields with yield-curve control?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if the BoE holds Bank Rate above 5% to fight sticky services inflation?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if levered JGB basis trades unwind into a thin market as the BoJ exits yield-curve control?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if LDI selling meets thin demand for 30-year gilts and forces a sharp curve steepening?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if a fast gilt-yield move forces pooled LDI funds to suspend and leaves DB schemes unhedged?
11%▲ 0–6 months
What if Treasury-market dysfunction forces the Fed to halt quantitative tightening?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if the EU issues large joint defense bonds and periphery spreads widen anyway?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if US defense and entitlement spending push the structural deficit durably higher?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if markets price a fiscal-dominance regime where deficits constrain central banks?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if US 30-year yields breach 6% for the first time since the 1990s?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if UK CPI re-accelerates toward double digits and forces the BoE to halt cuts?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if the ECB restarts rate hikes after inflation re-accelerates?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if leveraged-loan borrowers buckle under higher-for-longer floating-rate coupons?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if stablecoin redemptions amplify an ongoing Treasury market selloff?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if a fresh G7 reserve freeze accelerates de-dollarization globally?
11%▲ 3–10 years
What if global reserves split into Western and non-Western blocs?
11%▲ 3–10 years
What if a credible BRICS settlement currency spooks Treasury investors?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if synchronized global rearmament drives a defence-spending supercycle?
11%▲ 3–10 years
What if investors demand higher term premia on long-dated debt for chronic climate risk?
11%▲ 3–10 years
What if sea-level rise strands ports, airports, and coastal infrastructure globally?
11%▲ 0–6 months
What if Oil-spike inflation scare repriced across rates curves?
11%▲ 0–6 months
What if Indonesia bond-market exodus on global-yield spike?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if De-globalization inflation premium: fractured supply chains lift CPI?
11%▲ 0–6 months
What if Hawkish hold shock: dot plot signals no cuts, real yields jump?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if Stop-go policy whipsaw: cut-pause-hike cycle whips volatility higher?
11%▲ 0–6 months
What if Term-premium shock: 10y yield jumps 100bp on supply indigestion?
11%▲ 3–10 years
What if Secular inflation regime: 3-4% becomes the new normal anchor?
11%▲ 0–6 months
What if Inflation-expectations un-anchoring: 5y5y breakeven breaks 3%?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if Velocity-of-money surge: dormant savings ignite latent inflation?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if Stealth tightening: conditions tighten without any rate hikes?
11%▲ 0–6 months
What if Sticky-inflation taper tantrum: cut hopes dashed, EM FX sells off?
11%▲ 3–10 years
What if Permanent inflation premium: term structure prices 3% forever?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if the US term premium surges 150 basis points?
10%▲ 3–10 years
What if Norway starts drawing down its sovereign wealth fund?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if a violent bear steepening sends 10-year yields spiking 100 basis points?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if a hard landing triggers aggressive Fed cuts and a bull steepening of the curve?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if a hard landing forces the Fed to slash rates back to zero within a year?
10%▼ 6–18 months
What if quantitative tightening drains reserves too low and forces the Fed to reverse course?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if rising JGB yields trigger a re-rating of Japanese property funds and J-REITs?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if a BoJ rate exit lifts J-REIT yields and cuts unit prices sharply?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if leveraged Norwegian CRE firms struggle to refinance as values fall?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if 30-year US mortgage rates spike above 8%?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if central banks stay higher for longer and prolong global mortgage-reset shocks?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if the Bank of Canada stays restrictive longer and intensifies the mortgage renewal shock?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if dealers sharply raise gilt repo haircuts during an LDI-driven selloff?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if a spike in interest-rate volatility forces LDI funds to sell gilts and lift yields further?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if markets price a US debt-sustainability premium as deficits stay near 7% of GDP?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if a sharp US long-end selloff drives large losses on life-insurer bond portfolios?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if French political deadlock pushes the OAT-Bund spread above 100bp?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if foreign and domestic buyers step back from UK gilt auctions?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if the Bank of Japan fully exits yield-curve control and the 10-year JGB gaps higher?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if France's rearmament spending widens its deficit past 6% of GDP?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if euro-area real yields reprice sharply higher as the ECB holds restrictive?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if an Italy-EU budget clash jolts the BTP-Bund spread above 250bp?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if the EBA adverse scenario's rates-up path erodes aggregate CET1 by several points?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if sovereign wealth funds rotate out of long Treasuries into gold and bills?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if the Fed's operating losses halt Treasury remittances and spark political conflict?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if political pressure forces the ECB to finance fiscal and defense needs?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if Brazil's debt approaches 100% of GDP and triggers a disorderly bond repricing?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if Egypt's external debt-service burden raises restructuring risk as Gulf support strains?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if France's 6%-of-GDP deficit forces austerity into a weakening economy?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if UK private-sector pay stays above 6% and keeps the BoE in restrictive territory?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if a double-digit fall in sterling drives UK import prices and CPI sharply higher?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if euro-area 10-year yields surge 280bp and crush bank bond portfolios?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if the Bank of England raises Bank Rate to 6% to fight double-digit inflation?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if euro-area real yields climb above 1.5% and compress equity valuations?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if renewed energy subsidies balloon European fiscal deficits and alarm bond markets?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if soaring costs to maintain France's ageing nuclear fleet drag on growth and public finances?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if markets abandon ECB easing bets and Euribor reprices sharply higher?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if persistent weak investment leads the OBR to mark down UK potential growth?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if a bear steepener pushes 30- and 40-year JGB yields up 80-120bp on fiscal credibility fears?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if a large Japanese institution is again forced to dump low-coupon foreign bonds at a loss?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if an institution running unhedged foreign-bond carry is forced to liquidate into a yen-strengthening window?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if the JGB term premium blows out as Japan's debt sustainability comes into doubt?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if a sovereign-bank stress spike drives Indonesian government bond yields up 500 basis points?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if foreign investors exit Indonesian government bonds en masse, spiking yields?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if a risk-off wave triggers heavy foreign outflows from Malaysian bonds and equities?
Showing the top 500 by probability of 998. Open the full library in the Scenario Lab →