What if Real-yield spike crushes long-duration crypto valuations?
A jump in real yields raises the bar for non-yielding assets, compressing BTC and especially speculative alts as discount rates rise.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A jump in real yields raises the bar for non-yielding assets, compressing BTC and especially speculative alts as discount rates rise. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▼ · Crypto confidence ▼ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -4.3% hist -3.08–-0.74% · other way -5.96% (n=12) |
| 2 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -3.2% hist -13.83–+1.66% · other way -3.85% (n=12) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.4% hist -9.23–+1.49% · other way -3.27% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.3% hist -10.79–+0.63% · other way -15.5% (n=12) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.4–+0.63% · other way +6.46% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.57–+0.11% · other way +0.57% (n=12) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.88–+-0.0% · other way -0.02% (n=12) |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -7.98–+4.95% · other way +0.2% (n=12) |
| 10 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -8.07–+5.16% · other way -1.8% (n=12) |
| 11 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.85–+0.22% · other way +0.89% (n=12) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.32–+1.33% · other way +0.34% (n=12) |
| 13 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.59–+1.74% · other way +2.0% (n=12) |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.55–+1.27% · other way +1.35% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -3.9% | 80% | 40 | 0.45 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.1% · 5d -9.9% | 77% | 34 | 0.43 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 71% | 40 | 0.38 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -10.7% · 5d -8.7% | 71% | 35 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -7.2% · 5d -5.8% | 66% | 35 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 61% | 39 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -5.3% | 64% | 22 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -9bp · 5d -6bp | 59% | 40 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -10bp · 5d -6bp | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 54% | 34 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 54% | 33 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.6% | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |