What if structural depopulation hollows out regional Japanese commercial property and collapses loan collateral?
Structural depopulation hollows out regional commercial property, and as shopping centers and offices outside the metros lose tenants, the collateral behind regional-bank CRE loans deteriorates beyond recoverable value.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Structural depopulation hollows out regional commercial property, and as shopping centers and offices outside the metros lose tenants, the collateral behind regional-bank CRE loans deteriorates beyond recoverable value. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.