What if reinsurers retreat and make coastal homes unmortgageable?
Reinsurers doubling cat rates makes coastal/wildfire homes effectively unmortgageable — a housing-collateral and insurance-cost shock, not an agricultural one; the modeled wheat/corn +0.8% crop-stress channel is a misfire of the generic climate_supply factor. Rhymes with the hard reinsurance market of 2023 (post-Ian) when Florida property-cat rates jumped 30-50%. Transmission runs through mortgage availability and regional housing, plus reinsurer/P&C equity. Map roots to credit and financial conditions with a modest insurance-climate weight, dropping food inflation.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Global reinsurers double catastrophe rates, making coastal and wildfire-zone homes effectively unmortgageable. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.