What if Remittance shock from host-economy slowdown widens frontier deficits?
A slowdown in a major host economy cuts remittance flows to dependent frontiers, widening current-account deficits and pressuring currencies and external debt.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A slowdown in a major host economy cuts remittance flows to dependent frontiers, widening current-account deficits and pressuring currencies and external debt. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Global growth ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.61–+0.43% · other way -0.76% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -5.27–+1.26% · other way +26.61% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -18.28–+9.01% · other way -1.04% (n=11) |
| 4 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.7–-0.07% · other way -0.57% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.68–+3.97% · other way -3.49% (n=12) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.57–-0.05% · other way +0.35% (n=12) |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -6.65–+5.37% · other way +4.87% (n=11) |
| 9 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.84–+0.05% · other way -0.16% (n=12) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -6.32–+5.06% · other way +6.05% (n=11) |
| 11 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.41–-0.05% · other way -0.63% (n=12) |
| 12 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.03–+0.22% · other way -0.09% (n=12) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.7–+2.72% · other way +2.88% (n=12) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.41–+0.52% · other way +0.36% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 26 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -17.7% · 5d -13.9% | 100% | 3 | 0.59 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -3.2% | 73% | 22 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +4.8% · 5d +0.6% | 69% | 13 | 0.36 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 68% | 19 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 68% | 22 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.9% | 68% | 25 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -3.6% | 64% | 22 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.7% · 5d -1.9% | 67% | 3 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -6.4% · 5d -1.7% | 60% | 5 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.5% | 59% | 22 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 59% | 22 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -15bp · 5d -7bp | 58% | 26 | 0.14 | · |
| TRY TRY | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +1.2% | 57% | 21 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 55% | 22 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |