What if Remote-work entrenchment permanently impairs commodity office value?
Durable hybrid-work norms keep occupancy structurally below pre-pandemic levels, permanently impairing Class B/C office values and the tax base of office-heavy downtowns; the impairment pressures office REITs and city credits.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Durable hybrid-work norms keep occupancy structurally below pre-pandemic levels, permanently impairing Class B/C office values and the tax base of office-heavy downtowns; the impairment pressures office REITs and city credits. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.