What if Reserve-rebuild ceiling caps EM-FX upside via FX accumulation?
Central banks lean against currency appreciation by buying reserves into inflows, capping FX upside while building buffers that lower future tail risk.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Central banks lean against currency appreciation by buying reserves into inflows, capping FX upside while building buffers that lower future tail risk. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · Credit spreads ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.99–-0.02% · other way +0.94% (n=10) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -6.03–+10.86% · other way +10.58% (n=10) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.8–+6.44% · other way +0.27% (n=9) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.01–+0.5% · other way +0.66% (n=11) |
| 5 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.13–+0.29% · other way +0.29% (n=12) |
| 6 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.34–+0.23% · other way +0.24% (n=10) |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.09–+0.79% · other way -1.52% (n=12) |
| 8 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.24–+0.13% · other way -0.4% (n=10) |
| 9 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.8–+9.08% · other way +12.95% (n=8) |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -3bp hist -3.24–+4.47% · other way +2.1% (n=12) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.64–+0.46% · other way +4.85% (n=10) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.05–+0.47% · other way +0.35% (n=10) |
| 13 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.27–-0.05% · other way -0.51% (n=10) |
| 14 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -2.89–+8.36% · other way -1.8% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +2bp | 68% | 40 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.6% | 65% | 40 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 65% | 40 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -6.0% | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +6.3% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 57% | 37 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +2bp | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.8% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.6% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |