What if a reshoring boom reshapes industrial property, labour and capex?
A reshoring/onshoring boom is reflationary growth: industrial demand lifts copper (Freeport) and capex, bear-steepening the curve and nudging the Fed/real yields higher as mortgage rates follow. Rhymes with the post-2021 IRA/CHIPS construction-spending surge that drove a US factory-building boom. Forward angle: today's labor scarcity and automation mean reshoring is capex/robotics-intensive rather than job-rich, so the inflation impulse may be milder and the industrial-metals bid more durable than a 1970s-style wage spiral.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A reshoring/onshoring boom reshapes industrial real estate, labor and capex. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Growth surprise ▲ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.85–+1.3% · other way -2.07% (n=12) |
| 2 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -7.94–+23.53% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 3 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -6.63–+18.53% · other way -4.3% (n=12) |
| 4 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.05–+1.47% · other way +1.62% (n=12) |
| 5 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.38–+0.58% · other way -1.97% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -6.22–+7.31% · other way +0.56% (n=12) |
| 7 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.05–+0.29% · other way -0.11% (n=12) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.12–+0.32% · other way +0.01% (n=12) |
| 9 | 2y Treasury yield DGS2 | Rate | ▲ +2bp model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 15 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -0.4% | 78% | 9 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +21bp · 5d +7bp | 72% | 14 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +6bp | 68% | 15 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 67% | 9 | 0.22 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -5.7% | 60% | 10 | 0.13 | · |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.0% | 56% | 9 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.3% | 56% | 9 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +7.7% · 5d -3.5% ↺ fades | 44% | 9 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 48% | 15 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.5% | 40% | 10 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -2.8% ↺ fades | 33% | 6 | 0.00 | · |
Why this probability
Reshoring already underway via tariffs/IRA; multi-year boom is a developing trend. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.