What if resort-town second-home owners all sell at once?
A simultaneous second-home dump as remote work reverses crashes vacation-market prices — a discretionary-asset and consumption signal more than a credit shock; trade it as a recession/risk-appetite read, watch consumer-discretionary. Rhymes with the post-2008 collapse in resort and Florida/Arizona second-home values, the most rate- and confidence-sensitive segment. Transmission is via discretionary spending and jumbo/second-home mortgage credit. Forward angle: return-to-office mandates are the specific catalyst that distinguishes this from a generic downturn. Roots sensible.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Mountain and beach second-home owners list simultaneously as remote-work reverses, crashing vacation-market prices. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.