What if Right-populist surge in the Nordics chills capital and FX?
A right-populist surge across Nordic states raises tax-and-regulation unpredictability and migration friction; affected currencies soften and local risk assets de-rate on the policy-uncertainty premium.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A right-populist surge across Nordic states raises tax-and-regulation unpredictability and migration friction; affected currencies soften and local risk assets de-rate on the policy-uncertainty premium. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Growth surprise ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.