What if Ringgit overshoots stronger, BNM caps export competitiveness?
A rapid repatriation-and-FDI-driven ringgit surge overshoots fair value, pressuring E&E exporter margins and prompting BNM to lean against further gains; EM_FX firms while export-sensitive risk appetite cools.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A rapid repatriation-and-FDI-driven ringgit surge overshoots fair value, pressuring E&E exporter margins and prompting BNM to lean against further gains; EM_FX firms while export-sensitive risk appetite cools. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · Global growth ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.65–+0.35% · other way -0.48% (n=11) |
| 2 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.1–+0.18% · other way -0.34% (n=11) |
| 3 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.01–+0.27% · other way -0.65% (n=11) |
| 4 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.32–+0.36% · other way +1.24% (n=11) |
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.5% · 5d +0.3% | 70% | 33 | 0.36 | · |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 33 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d +0.8% ↺ fades | 64% | 33 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.2% · 5d +0.3% | 57% | 34 | 0.11 | · |
| CNY CNY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.0% | 55% | 33 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | +-0.0% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 43% | 33 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 46% | 28 | 0.00 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 43% | 33 | 0.00 | · |