What if Ringgit slides as oil/LNG price drop hits petro-revenue?
A sharp fall in crude and Asian LNG prices cuts Petronas dividends and Malaysia's petro-linked fiscal revenue, pressuring the ringgit; weaker energy receipts and EM_FX softness dent risk appetite.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A sharp fall in crude and Asian LNG prices cuts Petronas dividends and Malaysia's petro-linked fiscal revenue, pressuring the ringgit; weaker energy receipts and EM_FX softness dent risk appetite. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Natural gas ▼ · Oil demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.