What if Ringgit slides as oil/LNG price drop hits petro-revenue?
A sharp fall in crude and Asian LNG prices cuts Petronas dividends and Malaysia's petro-linked fiscal revenue, pressuring the ringgit; weaker energy receipts and EM_FX softness dent risk appetite.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A sharp fall in crude and Asian LNG prices cuts Petronas dividends and Malaysia's petro-linked fiscal revenue, pressuring the ringgit; weaker energy receipts and EM_FX softness dent risk appetite. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Natural gas ▼ · Oil demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.39–-0.09% · other way +0.64% (n=11) |
| 2 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.44–+0.28% · other way +4.09% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.39–+4.73% · other way +3.67% (n=8) |
| 4 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.13–+0.16% · other way -0.11% (n=11) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.57–+3.43% · other way +8.68% (n=11) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.85–+0.39% · other way +3.79% (n=8) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.33–+0.53% · other way -0.13% (n=11) |
| 9 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.15–-0.04% · other way -0.69% (n=11) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.93–+1.35% · other way +5.05% (n=8) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.35–+0.65% · other way -0.63% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 36 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INR INR | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.3% | 71% | 27 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 68% | 36 | 0.31 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 28 | 0.24 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 57% | 31 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 56% | 28 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.4% · 5d -4.4% ↺ fades | 56% | 28 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 53% | 36 | 0.05 | · |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +1.0% ↺ fades | 48% | 27 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NG NG | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -2.4% ↺ fades | 41% | 28 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +5.4% · 5d -6.9% ↺ fades | 50% | 11 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -3.9% | 47% | 12 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 47% | 28 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -2.9% ↺ fades | 38% | 18 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -0.1% | 48% | 29 | 0.00 | · |