What if Robusta replanting wave eases the global coffee deficit?
A government-backed Vietnamese and Brazilian Robusta replanting drive lifts output, rebuilding stocks and easing the world coffee balance.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A government-backed Vietnamese and Brazilian Robusta replanting drive lifts output, rebuilding stocks and easing the world coffee balance. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▼ · Consumer spending ▲ · Food inflation ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.09–+0.49% · other way -1.98% (n=11) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.96–+0.68% · other way -2.29% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.44–+1.39% · other way +7.25% (n=5) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.63–+12.54% · other way +1.7% (n=11) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.4–+0.19% · other way +0.34% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -0.8% | 62% | 38 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.1% | 64% | 39 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +11.6% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -6.5% | 59% | 35 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.2% | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 38 | 0.08 | · |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.9% | 53% | 38 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.5% | 51% | 38 | 0.02 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +4bp | 51% | 40 | 0.02 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.3% | 47% | 39 | 0.00 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +3.8% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 49% | 36 | 0.00 | · |