What if low oil and capital outflows force SAMA to run down reserves to defend the riyal?
Low oil plus capital outflows force SAMA to run down net foreign assets to defend the riyal peg and fund the deficit, narrowing the buffer the IMF FSAP flags as the peg's anchor.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Low oil plus capital outflows force SAMA to run down net foreign assets to defend the riyal peg and fund the deficit, narrowing the buffer the IMF FSAP flags as the peg's anchor. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.