What if Saudi reserve drawdown accelerates as deficits compound?
Successive oil-driven deficits force SAMA to run down foreign reserves faster than planned, narrowing the buffer behind the riyal peg and nudging Gulf credit spreads wider.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Successive oil-driven deficits force SAMA to run down foreign reserves faster than planned, narrowing the buffer behind the riyal peg and nudging Gulf credit spreads wider. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Oil demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.