What if a senolytic drug reverses biological ageing markers by a decade?
Direct chain: human senolytic data reversing biological-age markers ignites a longevity-stock and supplement mania — speculative longevity/biotech names and supplement suppliers spike on momentum, a sentiment-led risk-on pocket. Rhymes with the 2015 Unity Biotechnology senolytic hype cycle (which later round-tripped on trial misses). The forward caution: replication risk is high, so treat the initial spike as a momentum trade to fade, not a durable re-rate; the small risk-on roots are fine.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Human trial shows senolytic drug reverses biological-age biomarkers a decade, igniting longevity-stock mania and supplement boom. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.