What if Congress triggers another full government shutdown this autumn?
A government shutdown is a low-amplitude growth drag, not a credit event — the cleanest read is a modest risk-appetite fade and delayed data, with markets historically looking through it. Rhymes with the 35-day 2018-19 shutdown, during which the S&P actually rallied as the Fed pivot dominated. The real transmission is the data blackout that blinds the Fed; the forward angle is that a shutdown overlapping a Fed decision raises policy-error risk more than the GDP hit itself.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Congress misses the 30 September 2026 fiscal-year-end deadline, triggering a fresh full-government shutdown that delays pay, data, and benefits. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Financial conditions ▲ · Growth surprise ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -5.07–+1.37% · other way +26.61% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -18.03–+9.16% · other way -1.04% (n=11) |
| 3 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -6.45–+5.49% · other way +4.87% (n=11) |
| 4 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -6.1–+5.19% · other way +6.05% (n=11) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade's SHORT on MSTR: the +12.6% history is a BTC-bull regime artifact (2023 bank-panic windows), and BTC dominates MSTR — a shutdown's risk-off channel is second-order.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 26 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -17.7% · 5d -13.9% | 100% | 3 | 0.59 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 68% | 19 | 0.31 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -3.6% | 64% | 22 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.7% · 5d -1.9% | 67% | 3 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -6.4% · 5d -1.7% | 60% | 5 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -15bp · 5d -7bp | 58% | 26 | 0.14 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.2% | 54% | 26 | 0.06 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +0.1% | 50% | 22 | 0.00 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.6% · 5d +1.4% | 48% | 23 | 0.00 | · |
Why this probability
Shutdowns recur frequently at fiscal-year deadlines; divided, polarized Congress keeps odds high. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.