What if Shelter disinflation finally delivers and pulls core CPI lower?
Lagged market rents feed through to the official shelter component, dragging core CPI down toward target and validating the disinflation case; cooling inflation supports rate cuts and a broad risk-on rotation.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Lagged market rents feed through to the official shelter component, dragging core CPI down toward target and validating the disinflation case; cooling inflation supports rate cuts and a broad risk-on rotation. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Inflation expectations ▼ · Mortgage rates ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.