What if Smooth US transition lifts the post-election relief rally (good)?
A clean, decisive US election and orderly transition remove a major uncertainty overhang; volatility falls and a relief rally lifts equities as the political risk premium drains out of prices.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A clean, decisive US election and orderly transition remove a major uncertainty overhang; volatility falls and a relief rally lifts equities as the political risk premium drains out of prices. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▼ · Credit spreads ▼ · Growth surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.