What if GLP-1 drugs crush snack and soda sales?
Clean chain: GLP-1 adoption past 15% destroys salty-snack and soda volumes — short packaged-food/beverage staples (PEP, KO, MDLZ, KHC) and fast-food, a structural volume de-rate, not a macro move. Rhymes with the 2023 'Ozempic scare' that knocked ~10-15% off PepsiCo and snack names on adoption fears. Mapping this disinflationary staples-demand-destruction to +growth_surprise risk-on is the wrong sign; it is a defensive-sector short with negligible index beta.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. GLP-1 adoption crosses 15% of US adults, slashing salty-snack and soda volumes and crushing packaged-food equities. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Growth surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.