What if a snap election topples Japan's new LDP majority?
A snap election erasing the LDP majority whipsaws the yen and JGBs on fiscal-discipline uncertainty — the cleaner read is JGB supply/term-premium risk and a yen that swings on the carry-unwind channel. Rhymes with the August-2024 yen carry-trade unwind that crashed the Nikkei -12%, and the 2024 Ishiba-vote JGB jitters. Forward angle: post-carry-unwind positioning is lighter, so a Nikkei air-pocket is plausible but the global VaR shock should be smaller.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A 2026 snap dissolution erases Takaichi's new LDP majority, yen and JGBs whipsaw on coalition-bargaining and fiscal-discipline uncertainty. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — FX carry appetite ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -4.76–+0.78% · other way -3.1% (n=10) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -5.09–+1.62% · other way +26.58% (n=12) |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -7.57–+1.86% · other way +3.6% (n=11) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.26–-0.01% · other way +0.16% (n=12) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.82–+2.49% · other way -3.09% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.25–+1.01% · other way +8.09% (n=11) |
| 8 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.35–+0.4% · other way +0.78% (n=12) |
| 9 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.97–+0.2% · other way -1.4% (n=12) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.24–+0.14% · other way +0.28% (n=12) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.2–+0.34% · other way +0.58% (n=12) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.38–+0.05% · other way +23.11% (n=10) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.33–+0.43% · other way +3.07% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -8.4% | 71% | 25 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.5% · 5d -6.5% | 67% | 26 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.8% | 62% | 32 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 64% | 32 | 0.22 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -3.6% | 59% | 34 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.3% | 59% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 24 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -3.6% | 61% | 30 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 39 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d 0bp | 51% | 40 | 0.01 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 48% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.1% | 47% | 37 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 47% | 33 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 49% | 33 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
Snap dissolution within 6mo possible given fragile LDP-led coalition; near-term trigger uncertain. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.