What if Soft CPI shelter print pulls mortgage rates toward 6%?
A cooler-than-expected shelter CPI reading reinforces the disinflation trend and pulls long rates and mortgage rates toward 6%, improving affordability at the margin; the rate relief lifts homebuilders and housing-linked retail.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A cooler-than-expected shelter CPI reading reinforces the disinflation trend and pulls long rates and mortgage rates toward 6%, improving affordability at the margin; the rate relief lifts homebuilders and housing-linked retail. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Mortgage rates ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.