What if South Africa load-shedding returns to Stage 6 on Eskom breakdowns?
A fresh wave of Eskom unit breakdowns pushes South Africa back to Stage 6 load-shedding, throttling mining and manufacturing output and weighing on the rand and platinum-group-metals supply.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A fresh wave of Eskom unit breakdowns pushes South Africa back to Stage 6 load-shedding, throttling mining and manufacturing output and weighing on the rand and platinum-group-metals supply. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Silver ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.45–+0.81% · other way -0.93% (n=11) |
| 2 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.22–+0.92% · other way +5.63% (n=11) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.22–+0.91% · other way +26.94% (n=12) |
| 5 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.3–+0.08% · other way -0.16% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.92–+0.24% · other way -0.02% (n=12) |
| 7 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.25–-0.08% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.07–+5.26% · other way -2.6% (n=12) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.57–+0.79% · other way +6.02% (n=11) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.21–+0.06% · other way -0.08% (n=12) |
| 11 | Silver XAGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.51–+0.66% · other way +4.35% (n=12) |
| 12 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.2–-0.02% · other way -0.87% (n=12) |
| 13 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.56–+0.09% · other way -0.25% (n=12) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.18–-0.01% · other way -0.69% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -2.1% | 70% | 19 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 64% | 33 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +4.7% · 5d +1.1% | 62% | 16 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -2.9% | 60% | 37 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XAG XAG | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -0.4% | 59% | 37 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.1% | 57% | 37 | 0.13 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -11bp · 5d -4bp | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 56% | 37 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.9% · 5d +1.2% | 55% | 38 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -10.9% | 56% | 18 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| TRY TRY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +1.1% | 53% | 34 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -4.3% | 48% | 18 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.4% | 45% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |