What if South Africa-Mozambique grid link eases power crisis?
Cross-border transmission and Mozambican gas-to-power ease Southern Africa's electricity shortage, lifting industrial output and regional currencies.
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The butterfly cascade
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Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Cross-border transmission and Mozambican gas-to-power ease Southern Africa's electricity shortage, lifting industrial output and regional currencies. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Global growth ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.