What if Southern Africa gas corridor turns region into exporter?
Mozambique, Tanzania and Namibia gas projects collectively make Southern Africa a notable LNG exporter, lifting regional growth and easing global gas.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Mozambique, Tanzania and Namibia gas projects collectively make Southern Africa a notable LNG exporter, lifting regional growth and easing global gas. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · Clean-energy abundance ▲ · European energy ▼ · Global growth ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.91–+0.08% · other way -1.68% (n=8) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.76–+1.91% · other way +3.31% (n=5) |
| 3 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.78–+1.14% · other way -1.17% (n=8) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -2.61–+4.22% · other way +4.1% (n=8) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.76–-0.02% · other way -1.06% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.81–+0.59% · other way -1.56% (n=8) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.03–+0.73% · other way +0.32% (n=9) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.17–+0.64% · other way +3.39% (n=6) |
| 10 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.23–+1.12% · other way -7.01% (n=8) |
| 11 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.07–+0.46% · other way -0.85% (n=8) |
| 12 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.4% hist -9.66–+4.5% · other way -5.54% (n=8) |
| 13 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -4.8–+5.85% · other way +5.75% (n=7) |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.38–+0.65% · other way +0.94% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 14 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -4.2% | 77% | 12 | 0.42 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -9.3% · 5d -5.3% | 69% | 13 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -2.1% | 68% | 14 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +1.8% | 77% | 10 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -5.7% | 67% | 11 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d +4bp ↺ fades | 68% | 14 | 0.29 | · |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.3% | 65% | 12 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 64% | 10 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.6% | 58% | 14 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 58% | 12 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 59% | 10 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.5% | 58% | 12 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 11 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.0% | 55% | 14 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |