What if Sovereign BTC reserve race becomes a geopolitical scramble?
After one state's reserve adoption, rivals follow to avoid being last, kicking off a competitive accumulation that structurally tightens BTC supply.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. After one state's reserve adoption, rivals follow to avoid being last, kicking off a competitive accumulation that structurally tightens BTC supply. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▲ · Crypto confidence ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +6.2% hist +1.82–+4.58% · other way +25.77% (n=12) |
| 2 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +4.2% hist -8.24–+2.71% · other way +1.73% (n=12) |
| 3 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +3.8% hist -0.92–+11.31% · other way +2.32% (n=12) |
| 4 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +3.5% hist -5.11–+2.82% · other way +3.71% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +2.8% hist -2.38–+4.42% · other way -4.22% (n=12) |
| 6 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.4% hist -3.3–+13.84% · other way +20.0% (n=12) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.05–-0.42% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 8 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.17–+1.1% · other way -0.04% (n=12) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +1.1% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.48–-0.21% · other way +0.35% (n=12) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.64–+0.0% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.46–+0.32% · other way +2.34% (n=12) |
| 13 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.05–+0.15% · other way +3.29% (n=12) |
| 14 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist +0.71–+2.42% · other way +3.6% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +11.5% · 5d +6.3% | 73% | 16 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +8.3% · 5d +7.7% | 70% | 27 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -8.2% · 5d -6.0% | 75% | 19 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.2% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 66% | 24 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.5% | 65% | 25 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -6.0% · 5d -4.1% | 65% | 22 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.4% | 63% | 31 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -1.1% | 62% | 31 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +1.2% ↺ fades | 63% | 24 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -2.4% | 62% | 25 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 60% | 25 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 61% | 24 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 26 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -3.5% | 60% | 26 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |