What if SSA eurobond maturity wall sparks a refinancing scramble?
A cluster of African eurobond redemptions amid tight global funding forces several sovereigns to scramble, widening spreads region-wide.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A cluster of African eurobond redemptions amid tight global funding forces several sovereigns to scramble, widening spreads region-wide. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.6% hist -4.82–+0.33% · other way +27.47% (n=12) |
| 2 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.5% hist -3.67–+0.73% · other way +6.05% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -11.45–+1.45% · other way -1.04% (n=11) |
| 4 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.63–+0.32% · other way +0.37% (n=12) |
| 5 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.71–+-0.0% · other way -0.6% (n=12) |
| 6 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -3.23–+1.01% · other way +21.75% (n=11) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.78–-0.19% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -7.19–+2.1% · other way +4.87% (n=11) |
| 10 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.09–+0.63% · other way +0.89% (n=12) |
| 11 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.71–-0.02% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 12 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.65–+3.96% · other way -0.58% (n=12) |
| 13 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.52–-0.07% · other way -0.69% (n=12) |
| 14 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.13–+0.2% · other way -0.88% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.1% · 5d -9.4% | 81% | 18 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -0.1% | 66% | 34 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 69% | 33 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 66% | 40 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -3.4% | 64% | 35 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.2% · 5d -6.1% | 67% | 18 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.3% | 62% | 35 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 62% | 35 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -8bp · 5d -3bp | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 35 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.6% | 57% | 19 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 35 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +1.0% | 55% | 34 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 53% | 34 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |