What if Stablecoin crowd-out drains EM bank deposits?
Dollar stablecoins siphon savings out of weak-currency banking systems, pressuring EM FX and local funding while reinforcing offshore dollar demand.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Dollar stablecoins siphon savings out of weak-currency banking systems, pressuring EM FX and local funding while reinforcing offshore dollar demand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Crypto liquidity ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -7.82–+1.11% · other way +21.07% (n=12) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.62–-0.23% · other way +0.8% (n=12) |
| 3 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.64–+0.32% · other way -0.27% (n=12) |
| 4 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -7.08–+1.01% · other way +0.57% (n=11) |
| 5 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.65–-0.2% · other way -0.24% (n=12) |
| 6 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.09–+0.6% · other way +0.8% (n=12) |
| 7 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.7–-0.1% · other way +13.02% (n=11) |
| 8 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.47–-0.08% · other way -0.49% (n=12) |
| 9 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.97–+0.12% · other way -0.63% (n=12) |
| 10 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -18.02–+2.2% · other way -7.23% (n=11) |
| 11 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -4bp hist -14.32–+2.4% · other way +1.2% (n=12) |
| 12 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.27–-0.16% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 13 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -4bp hist -15.76–+4.16% · other way +1.1% (n=12) |
| 14 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -14.5% · 5d -13.8% | 85% | 17 | 0.49 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.7% · 5d -4.0% | 77% | 18 | 0.43 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -0.0% | 72% | 34 | 0.43 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -6.1% · 5d -4.5% | 70% | 35 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.1% · 5d -6.0% | 70% | 17 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -11bp · 5d -5bp | 64% | 40 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 63% | 33 | 0.22 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.2% | 59% | 35 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -13bp · 5d -6bp | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +1.0% | 59% | 34 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 55% | 35 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +7.3% · 5d +2.4% | 55% | 36 | 0.09 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 54% | 34 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |