What if markets begin discounting Gulf long-run oil revenue as the energy transition accelerates?
A faster energy transition prompts markets to discount Gulf petro-sovereign long-run revenue, pressuring diversification funding and long-dated GCC credit and FX risk.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A faster energy transition prompts markets to discount Gulf petro-sovereign long-run revenue, pressuring diversification funding and long-dated GCC credit and FX risk. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Oil demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.08–+1.29% · other way +12.56% (n=9) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.08–+1.33% · other way -1.8% (n=9) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.66–+2.12% · other way +4.09% (n=5) |
| 4 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.91–+2.46% · other way -2.47% (n=9) |
| 5 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.63–+3.62% · other way -4.63% (n=9) |
| 6 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.38–+0.41% · other way +1.61% (n=12) |
| 7 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.11–+2.01% · other way +27.86% (n=5) |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.51–+0.46% · other way +6.04% (n=5) |
| 9 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.18–+0.3% · other way -2.62% (n=8) |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist -2.68–+2.82% · other way +24.2% (n=12) |
| 11 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.44–+0.3% · other way -1.42% (n=8) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.3–+0.26% · other way -0.45% (n=8) |
| 13 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -3.28–+2.27% · other way +26.8% (n=12) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.16–-0.06% · other way +0.37% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CORN CORN | LONG | +3.0% · 5d +0.6% | 68% | 37 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 65% | 37 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.8% | 67% | 37 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.5% | 67% | 37 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.3% | 62% | 37 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -8.3% | 65% | 16 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d -2bp | 60% | 39 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 37 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.1% | 57% | 39 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 18 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.0% | 56% | 37 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d 0bp | 55% | 38 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 54% | 38 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.3% | 51% | 37 | 0.01 | ✓ matches cascade |