What if high oil prices pull Brazilian cane toward ethanol and tighten the global sugar market?
High oil prices pull Brazilian cane toward ethanol over sugar, tightening the global sugar market and spiking prices, an energy-agriculture crossover food-inflation scenario.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. High oil prices pull Brazilian cane toward ethanol over sugar, tightening the global sugar market and spiking prices, an energy-agriculture crossover food-inflation scenario. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil demand ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.