What if rising lethal-heat days slow in-migration and property growth in US Sun Belt metros?
Rising lethal-heat days erode the livability and growth premium of US Sun Belt metros, slowing in-migration and property appreciation in a chronic-physical demographic reversal.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Rising lethal-heat days erode the livability and growth premium of US Sun Belt metros, slowing in-migration and property appreciation in a chronic-physical demographic reversal. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Consumer spending ▼ · Mortgage rates ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.15–+0.5% · other way -3.11% (n=11) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.27–+3.44% · other way -2.77% (n=11) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.58–+1.0% · other way +2.87% (n=11) |
| 4 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.1% hist -1.59–+2.61% · other way +10.05% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 23 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.6% · 5d +4.2% | 65% | 17 | 0.25 | · |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -3.4% | 62% | 16 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 62% | 16 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 16 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 16 | 0.12 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 56% | 16 | 0.12 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +7.1% · 5d +0.3% | 56% | 9 | 0.10 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d -1bp | 55% | 23 | 0.10 | · |
| NG NG | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -2.3% ↺ fades | 50% | 16 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.3% | 49% | 23 | 0.00 | · |