What if tier-3 city housing oversupply in China crystallizes as a permanent capital loss?
Massive housing oversupply in tier-3/4 cities (years of unsold inventory) crystallizes as a permanent capital loss, bankrupting local developers and gutting local-government finances.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Massive housing oversupply in tier-3/4 cities (years of unsold inventory) crystallizes as a permanent capital loss, bankrupting local developers and gutting local-government finances. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -4.06–+0.99% · other way +0.06% (n=11) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.99–+0.47% · other way +0.73% (n=11) |
| 3 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.7–-0.01% · other way -0.33% (n=11) |
| 4 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.94–+0.09% · other way -0.05% (n=11) |
| 5 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.07–+0.21% · other way -1.29% (n=9) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.33–+2.1% · other way +27.34% (n=11) |
| 7 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.56–+0.57% · other way -4.57% (n=9) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.0–+0.46% · other way -6.09% (n=11) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -12.23–+2.11% · other way -3.19% (n=9) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.88–+1.37% · other way +6.08% (n=9) |
| 11 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.34–-0.03% · other way -1.81% (n=11) |
| 12 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.28–+0.47% · other way +1.69% (n=11) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.38–+0.54% · other way -1.07% (n=12) |
| 14 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.7–+0.17% · other way +0.29% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -10.2% · 5d -13.5% | 72% | 21 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.0% | 67% | 39 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.9% | 67% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -0.6% | 66% | 39 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.9% | 63% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 58% | 39 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -2.2% | 58% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -2.1% | 58% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -3.0% | 57% | 30 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.4% | 56% | 39 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.4% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.0% | 53% | 39 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |